SPR30831 WLF SPA WhitePaper v12 - Flipbook - Page 13
Economic overview
such as Australia. An analysis of time series data across 30 countries from 1960-2012 found that
the effect of unemployment was particularly significant on male suicide in all welfare state
regimes; with a heavier impact seen in those states where unemployment protections were less
generous34.
Financial distress, another common outcome of economic downturn, also links with suicidality.
A systematic review of the health impacts of indebtedness found people who could not service
their debts experienced suicidal ideation and depression more often than the general
population35. While a separate study found levels of personal debt are also associated with
suicidal ideation, suicidal attempts and suicide even after adjusting for socioeconomic factors,
lifestyle behaviours and other risk factors36.
There is also evidence however, that access to social safety nets and unemployment support
measures ameliorate the impact of economic recession on suicide risk. A 2014 review of
literature associated with risk factors and preventative strategies, tentatively found that nations
that maintained social welfare spending during recessions (rather than embarking on an
austerity regime), invested in targeted unemployment interventions and fostered responsible
media reporting, saw less significant increases in their suicide rates during economic
recessions. Similarly, an analysis of time series data across 30 countries from 1960-2012, found
that the effect of unemployment was particularly significant on male suicide in all welfare state
regimes; with a greater impact seen in those states where unemployment protections were less
widely available or supported 37.
The outlook for Australia
While Australia has better weathered the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison with many other
countries, the continuing economic impacts is expected to be longer lasting. The most recent
forecasts from the treasury show Australia is in recession and will see a decline in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) of more than 10 per cent in the June quarter; the largest fall in
Australia’s history and representing a loss of $50 billion to the economy38. Treasury has also
estimated a continued increase in the unemployment rate, which is predicted to increase
to 10 per cent by the end of June39.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent outlook has forecast a faster recovery for Australia;
predicting that while a further 7 per cent of Australians will become unemployed by the end of
the June quarter, the gradual easing of lockdown measures will see the economy begin to
recover by December 2020; with full recovery perhaps possible by December 202140. Even if this
somewhat conservative outlook comes to fruition, approximately 900,000 more Australians will
be out of work by September; at the time when the JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments are
due to expire.
Proposals for consideration
As outlined above, the availability of social supports is an important mitigating factor for the
impact of unemployment on distress. The JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments have been a
welcome source of relief for businesses seeking to retain their staff and the newly jobless.
The availability of these measures are perhaps an important factor in the less than predicted
suicide rates indicated by the National Suicide Prevention Adviser in May 41. The Australian
Government has however, clearly stated that JobKeeper and the Coronavirus Supplement to
JobSeeker are intended as temporary measures only, and that continuing them in the longer
term would not be fiscally sustainable.
Given the important protective role social safety nets play in reducing distress and suicide risk,
we ask the Australian Government to consider an approach that maintains fiscal responsibility,
while ensuring that the many Australians who are seeking work will have adequate basic
support. Taking the Coronavirus Supplement out of the equation, the base rate of JobSeeker
(formerly Newstart) has not increased in real terms since 1994, despite the increasing cost of the
necessities of life such as housing, groceries and utilities42. An increase to the base rate has
Reducing distress in the community following the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2020
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