October 19 Issue - Newspaper - Page 3
EDITION 8
Page 3
October 19 2023
OPINION
Poll: Presidential Paradox
Achilles
and
the
Turtle
By Garrett Biggs & James Lee
Polling we have just
concluded in the swing
state of Pennsylvania
demonstrates how close
the upcoming presidential
election will once again
be nationally and in the
other few swing states
that remain such as
Michigan, Arizona, and
Wisconsin. If anyone
thought the politics of
division and strife will be
put behind us, get ready
for reruns of 2016 and
2020. What is intriguing
is that our poll proposes
an American presidential
paradox: both President
Biden and former
president Trump control
their own destinies.
Yet how can this be?
Such is the nature of
paradoxes. Because our
culture and democracy
come from the ancient
Greeks and Romans, let
us consider an
explanation of a paradox
as given to us by
Aristotle. Aristotle could
be thought of as a
political consultant to
Alexander the Great, and
his story of Achilles, who
will be Trump in our
example, and the slow
turtle, who will be
President Biden, helps
illuminate the current
situation.
First, the data. Trump is
destroying his
competition in the race
for the Republican
nomination in
Pennsylvania. He is
cruising along with a
commanding 58% of the
vote. His next closest
competitor is Florida
Governor DeSantis who
sits at 16%. No other
candidate has been able to
race ahead beyond 6%.
With other national polls
echoing our poll in
Pennsylvania, it is
looking like a safe bet
Trump will win the race
for the GOP nomination
unless something truly
fantastic happens.
This is where the race
turns murky paradox. In
the head-to-head
match-up between Biden
and Trump, President
Biden leads by a slim
47%-45% margin, closely
matching Biden’s margin
of victory in 2020. This
topline number alone
suggests a toss-up in
Pennsylvania, key to
winning the race for
president, and we can
expect Pennsylvania to be
completely up for grabs
once again. Biden’s lead
is within the margin of
error, and since political
campaigns are open
competitions in which the
candidate who performs
best wins, the race is
clearly winnable for
either candidate, a turn of
events not so imaginable
mere months ago.
President Biden holds a
substantial 42%-31% lead
over Trump with
registered independent
voters. With Biden
earning 92% of
Democrats and Trump
90% of Republicans, both
sides have already
succeeded in connecting
with their base. That part
of the race is largely over.
What we see in the poll is
a microcosm of our
nation’s politics. There is
a great divide between
Republicans and
Democrats which played
out in Pennsylvania
where Biden won by just
over 1%. Religiosity
declining as it is in
America, politics is the
new religion as
Republicans and
Democrats almost blindly
vote for their party’s
nominee in lockstep. The
analogy explains Trump’s
amazing Teflon quality in
overcoming any political
obstacle and dashing
ahead as a highly
competitive candidate.
Despite the great political
divide, so much is still
the same. Both Biden and
Trump will have to
persuade swing voters to
support them, however
fewer of them there are
compared to elections
past. With Biden well
ahead among independent
voters, Trump will have
to race forward to close
the gap. It is the data on
independents which leads
to our paradox.
SEASON OF THE WITCH
Witchfest – Monongahela Aquatorium
By Toni Fitch
After another summer of
good vibes and good
times, the Monongahela
Aquatorium closes out
the season with Witchfest
on Saturday, October 21
from 12pm-8pm and
admission is free, rain or
shine. It is the sixth year
for the annual event that
promises to be a
scary-good time with an
expected attendance of
up to 5,000 people.
Tanya Chaney is the
President of Aquatorium
Innovations. It is the
non-profit organization
that manages the
Aquatorium.
Per Tanya, “Witchfest is
a themed-craft show.”
There are “juried
vendors” which means
that the organizers
review the vendors
applications and choose
which ones are best for
this event, the “highest
quality” as Tanya puts it.
The all-day event
“focuses a lot on
entertainment and
community
involvement.” Some of
the fun-filled activities
include contests such as a
costume contest, a witch
hat contest, and a
cackling (witch’s laugh)
contest. Tarot card
readers and spiritual
readers will be on hand
for those that enjoy that
type of thing. There will
be a DJ playing music
throughout the day and
food vendors on hand,
too. According to Tanya,
“it’s just a good time.
And we draw people
from around the county,
outside the county and
from outside our state.”
Tanya stresses that “it is
all just in fun,” although
you may want to leave
the younger children at
home. The costumes can
be a little frightening for
the young ones. Tanya
describes some of the
costumes as
“magnificently
authentic.” Adding
“people go all out on
these costumes. It is kind
of like an adult-themed
costume party.”
When asked how
Witchfest originated
Tanya replied, “we had a
different Board of
Directors at the time and
it was the brainchild of
Terry Sebben and
Claudia Williams, who
ran the committee at the
time.” They helped grow
Witchfest into the event
that it is today, drawing
in vendors from around
the country. “It gained
popularity quite quickly.
It is one of the
highest-searched events
through the Washington
County Tourism
website.”
If you are attending for
the first time, Tanya says
to expect “lots of fun and
laughter.” She added that
“each vendor is unique
and hand-crafted.” There
is a wonderful
opportunity to find
one-of-a-kind items as
you shop and enjoy the
day. Make sure you carve
out enough time so that
you can appreciate each
and every vendor’s
wares. Items you may
find include jewelry,
chain mail, sterling
silver, crystals, soaps,
candles, and brooms (in
case yours is in the
shop). And if you are 21
and over, themed
cocktails will be
available. Just do not
partake in too many, you
want to keep your wits
about you for the
witches’ dance, “kind of
like a line-dance, if you
will.”
Tanya went on to
mention how this event
helps boost the economy
in Monongahela and
surrounding areas.
Patrons go shopping at
the local shops, dining at
local restaurants, and
staying at nearby hotels.
For more information
you can visit the
Monongahela
Aquartoium website at
https://monaquatorium.c
om/ or their Facebook
page. As the website
states, they’re not
“witchin’ around.”
Aristotle’s paradox is a
race between a slow turtle
and the quick-on-his-feet
Achilles. The turtle has a
lead in the race, as
President Biden does, and
Achilles, like Trump,
must go at least half the
distance to the turtle
before reaching the
turtle’s place. To do that,
he must go half of that
half distance and so on
and so forth, creating an
infinite number of such
tasks. The mathematical
game’s explanation,
therefore, describes a race
in which Achilles will
never catch the slow
turtle.
Former president Trump
cannot win the race
unless he closes the gap
on independents.
Campaigns are about
message and repetition,
and Trump’s message has
been laser-focused on the
culture war and similar
tenants of his slogan to
Make America Great
Again, which plays very
well indeed with the GOP
base. As for
independents, he has been
doubling, tripling,
quadrupling down on his
message.
If we move into the final
stretch of the election and
Trump, our Achilles, is
quintupling down on his
message, and so on and
so forth in an infinitely
unchanged approach to
trying to win, he will
never catch Biden, our
slow turtle.
In reality, the capable
Achilles is quick enough
on his feet to catch the
turtle and would do so. In
the real world of politics,
campaigns must listen to
the data, which is the
embodiment of real
attitudes of real people
and adjust accordingly to
expand upon their
coalition of support.
Trump can win if he
listens to the data and
finds a way to reach not
just Republican voters,
but more moderate,
independent voters as
well. Biden may have low
approval ratings, but he is
currently doing better
than Trump on
connecting with
independents.
Should this continue, the
turtle can crawl slowly to
Election Day and Achilles
will never catch him,
however close it may
once again be in states
like Michigan,
Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin.
Garrett Biggs is a veteran
of over 120 political
campaigns at
BlairBiggsCampaigns.co
m and James Lee is the
President of Susquehanna
Polling & Research.
Need Something
Else
to Worry About?
By Dave Ball
If you have nothing else
to worry about, ponder
this. Tech giant X
(Twitter) announced that
it will begin collecting
biometric data from its
Premium customers “to
tackle fraud and
impersonation on the
platform.” That may be
one thing they do.
They also say that they
will collect the user’s
employment and
educational history. This,
according to X, “to
surface potential job
recommendations, share
that information with
prospective employers
and serve tailored ads.”
How big a step do you
suppose it will be until
Google gets into the same
game? Then, under the
argument of an industry
wide security standard,
all communications and
high-tech providers begin
requiring biometric
identification. How long
will it be until firms like
23andMe,
Ancestery.com,
HomeDNA and so on
join the game with DNA
data and broad-spectrum
biometric data will a
necessary part of the
“internet security
protocol?”
At that point, all that data
will be available to the
government and tracking
American citizens, where
they are, where they
shop, where they bank,
what each and every
transaction they make is
will be nearly complete.
They will know who is
related to whom for
generations past. The
only part of the
communication cycle
missing will be person to
person communication.
That is in progress. Does
anyone notice all the 5G
towers around? Imaging
6G with a whole host
more “listening points”
monitoring external
conversation to
complement the listening
job already being done by
your home smart devices
like smart TVs, Alexa
devices, and voice
actuated electronics.
Think your car is not
listening to you and
monitoring your
conversations and your
whereabouts?
Where does this go? It
feeds seamlessly into the
coming cashless society
wherein the government
controls all money. You
have only what the
government tells you you
have. If you dissent, all of
a sudden, your cash
access card does not work
or is limited. Gun
confiscation? Access
cards no longer work to
buy guns or ammunition.
Your personal tracker
puts you at a gun store
location. Agents come to
visit you. Want to force
people to buy electric
cars? Your access card is
able to buy less and less
gas. Big brother runs
association checks and
finds you have been
seeing “undesirables” and
you are sanctioned. The
list of “thought crimes”
grows.
Not worried X is going to
start collecting biodata?
Big Brother and the age
of Techno-tyranny is
nearly upon us.
