October 19 Issue - Newspaper - Page 4
Page 4
EDITION 8
October 19 2023
Top Line Survey Results & Analysis
Pennsylvania Presidential Election
(Early Preferences) Poll
TOP LINE RESULTS AND QUESTIONNAIRE
FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc., one of the most highly rated polling firms in the USA according to Real Clear Politics1 for
its Presidential polling in the popular “multi-state” pollster categoryi, today released its latest Pennsylvania Statewide Voter Attitude
Survey testing voters’ attitudes and early preferences in the 2024 Presidential election.
The poll is a random sample of 700 registered Pennsylvania voters, weighted to state Census data and balanced by geographic region,
age, political party affiliation, and other factors. Conducted September 19-28, 2023, using live telephone agents and a supplemental
component of online panel interviews using SP&R’s proprietary statewide voter panel, the poll includes interviews with N=700 voters
and has a margin of error of +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level. The key findings of the poll include the following:
POTUS Matchup: N. Haley Leads President Biden Narrowly in Critical Battleground Pennsylvania
In a hypothetical match up between President Biden and GOP hopeful Nikki Haley, Haley leads Biden by a narrow 45:44 margin; 4%
prefer another candidate and 7% are undecided. Haley leads among GOP voters 86:4 while Biden leads Haley among Democrats 88:6.
However, registered Independents, which according to an analysis by our firm are the fastest growing cohort of the electorate in
Pennsylvania (spanning a 10-year period from 2010-2020), lean towards Haley 36:35. This is a critical finding in a state where exit
polling shows that independents, or “swing” voters who split their tickets in most elections, can account for up to 3 in 10 voters on
Election Day. In comparison, Biden leads Trump with Independent voters by double digits, or 42:31. This is a critical reason why
Haley seems more electable and better positioned [than Trump] as a Republican nominee in the general election.
POTUS Matchup: President Biden Leads D. Trump in Close Contest
In a hypothetical match up between President Biden and GOP [primary] front runner Donald Trump, Biden leads Trump by a narrow,
47:45 margin; 4% prefer another candidate and 5% are undecided. Biden leads Trump among Democrats 92:4 while Trump leads
Biden with Republicans 90:3. However, the key difference hurting Trump is that he is losing Independents to Biden by a 42:31
margin, a critical voting block that can represent the difference between victory and defeat in a state where CNN exit polling shows
Biden won Independents by a 52-44 margin in ’20. Among moderate voters in a purple state like Pa., which according to the poll
outnumber both conservatives and self-identified liberals/progressives, Biden leads Trump by a substantial 56:34 margin (or 22 pts).
In comparison, Haley only trails Biden 50:37 among moderates. Nonetheless, the margin between the candidates in both matchups is
well within the poll’s +/-3.7% margin of error, thus both races (Biden/Haley and Biden/Trump) are statistical dead heats.
POTUS PRIMARY SWEEPSTAKES: Biden and Trump lead handily in their respective Primaries
In a hypothetical match up of nine Republican hopefuls, Trump leads the GOP field with a commanding 58% of the vote, while R.
DeSantis garners 16% of the vote as a second-place candidate. All other candidates poll in single digits or have zero support, including
N. Haley (6%), C. Christie (4%), M. Pence (4%) and A. Hutchinson (1%); 10% of Republicans are undecided. V. Ramaswamy, T.
Scott and D. Burgum all polled at less than 1 percent each.
Q4. As you may know, next April 23rd Republican voters will vote in
the presidential primary to nominate a Republican to run for President.
If the Pennsylvania Republican Primary for choosing a Republican
nominee for President were being held today, and the candidates
included (ROTATE NAMES) Donald Trump, Asa Hutchinson, Nicki
Haley, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Tim Scott,
Doug Burgum, Ron DeSantis, for whom would you vote?
Q5. Thinking way ahead to the Democratic Primary election for
President in 2024, if the choices included (ROTATE NAMES) … Joe
Biden, Robert Kennedy, Jr., Marianne Williamson, for whom would
you vote?
[N=294]
[N=294]
1.
D. Burgum 0 00%
2.
C. Christie 13 04%
3.
R. DeSantis 48 16%
4.
N. Haley 17 06%
5.
A. Hutchinson 2 01%
6.
M. Pence 12 04%
7.
V. Ramaswamy 0 00%
8.
T. Scott 0 00%
9.
D.Trump 172 58%
10.
Other 0 00%
11.
Not Sure 29 10%
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Q6. If the next election for President were being held today, and the
candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat candidate, and Nikki Haley,
the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?
1.
Biden/Democrat 310 44%
2.
Haley/Republican 312 45%
3.
Other 28 04%
4.
Not Sure 51 07%
1.
Biden/Democrat 327 47%
2.
Trump/Republican 312 45%
3.
Other 29 04%
4.
Not Sure 32 05%
Biden, Joe 206 70%
Kennedy, Robert Jr., 41 14%
Williamson, Marianne 2 01%
Other 10 03%
Not Sure 34 12%
Won’t vote in primary election 2 01%
Q7. If the next election for President were being held today, and the
candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat candidate, and Donald
Trump, the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?
METHODOLOGY, SAMPLE FRAME CONSTRUCTION AND DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES
This poll was conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc2, for public dissemination. Interviews were conducted September 19-28,
2023, with 700 registered voters in Pennsylvania. Survey respondents are randomly contacted using random selection procedures, and all
telephone interviews are conducted using live telephone agents. The sample frame was compiled using random telephone sequence methods, and
includes both landline and cellular households, purchased from a certified list vendor; all households are pre-screened to eliminate household
telephone numbers on the federal Do Not Call registry in compliance with all applicable federal and state laws. Only known registered voters
were contacted, compiled from a list of households with prior vote history in 1 of 4 or better general elections using G22, G21, G20 and/or G19
as the base universe. Voters who registered to vote after the 2022 general election are also included and eligible to participate.
Interviews are closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of the Pennsylvania electorate is achieved based on party registration,
geography, gender, age cohort and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted to adjust for coverage bias or non-response
error.
A supplemental component of interviews was collected via SP&R’s proprietary web panel, owned by Bartlett Research Group, consisting of a
database of registered voters in all geographic regions of the Commonwealth. Panel respondents are pre-screened to ensure their eligibility in the
survey.
The margin of error for a sample size of 700 interviews is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
