The Intermediary – February 2025 - Flipbook - Page 32
"Why couldn't it have been snakes?!"
“This clearly has huge repercussions for the
mortgage industry and means that we all need to
work together to support people stepping onto
facing an average extra cost of £2,900, at a time
and up the property ladder.”
when saving that amount is not easy.
Buyer frenzy
Humber, the North of England, and Northern
With the deadline fast approaching, the market
Ireland – where fewer than 10% of first-time
By contrast, in regions such as Yorkshire & The
is bracing for a predictable, yet dramatic, surge
buyers purchase properties within this range –
in activity. First-time buyers eager to dodge the
the fallout will be more muted.
additional tax burden are scrambling to complete
Steve Pimblett, chief data officer at Rightmove,
before 31st March 2025, injecting a short-term
has already observed the rush, particularly in
frenzy into the market.
higher-priced areas where first-time buyers stand
Much like previous cliff-edge deadlines, this
artificial urgency is driving demand – and, in
many cases, house prices – higher, particularly in
regions where affordability is already stretched.
"The main impact of the Stamp Duty changes
is likely to be on the timing of property
transactions," explains Robert Gardner, chief
economist at Nationwide.
He predicts a flurry of completions in the first
to lose the most. However, as the deadline gets
closer, some of this urgency has started to wane.
“As the deadline has crept nearer, we’ve seen
some of this first-time buyer activity cool as it has
become less likely that new buyers will complete
on time” he explains.
Pimblett remains optimistic, adding: “Because
there is still good availability of homes that
would be Stamp Duty free for first-time buyers
quarter of 2025, particularly in March, followed
in most areas of England, we think this sector
by a cooling period in the months that follow.
will continue to be active this year beyond
"This pattern has played out after previous
Stamp Duty changes," he notes, although he
the deadline.”
expects the swings to be slightly less extreme this
Market optimism
time, given that the expiry was well-signposted.
Indeed, not everyone is convinced that the
The impact, however, will not be felt evenly
across the country.
Gardner highlights that the biggest shockwaves
will hit the South East, where 40% of first-time
32
buyers currently purchase properties in the
£300,000 to £425,000 bracket, leaving them
The Intermediary | February 2025
market will suffer a major downturn once the
dust settles.
"We are already seeing a pre-Stamp Duty rush,
with new buyer demand up 13% compared to last
