Sasol Integrated Report 2024 - Book - Page 28
INTRODUCTION
ABOUT SASOL
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
BUSINESSES
ESG
REMUNERATION REPORT
DATA AND ASSURANCE / ADMINISTRATION
STRATEGY continued
RESILIENCE OF OUR PORTFOLIO
Quantitative robustness testing to 2030 (with mitigation)
We continuously update our set of global and local future scenarios of the external environment. These future scenarios are used to test the robustness of our strategy,
both qualitatively and quantitatively, to assist in identifying potential risks and opportunities as well as to improve overall strategic resilience. Our greenhouse gas
(GHG) targets, the physical impacts of a changing climate on our business and opportunities in a low-carbon future are included in the assessment. The outcome of
our quantitative robustness test of our portfolio in each future scenario is shown below.
It should be noted that in this analysis, increased geopolitical disparities, slower economic growth, rising living costs and uncertainties in policy and energy transition
impact us. This has translated into a slower transition in the pre-2030 period, accelerating post-2030 towards similar endpoints in the scenarios compared to 2023.
This has necessitated a revision of the robustness testing methodology, therefore a direct comparative analysis for the prior years should not be undertaken.
Outcome of qualitative robustness test
The result of this and past robustness testing, continues to shape the Future Sasol strategy. Sasol is actively monitoring
opportunities for further value creation into the future which will be included in future disclosures. Some interventions
currently being progressed include:
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
SAF depends on regional and country-level blending mandates
and funding. While the regulatory landscape is evolving,
international initiatives are shaping aviation’s transition.
We see this as a medium- to long-term opportunity.
New value chains
We are exploring renewable power, gas-to-power, mobility,
green hydrogen, sustainable carbon, and other growth areas
for a sustainable profit base, focusing on those with attractive
returns before 2030 and that support local job creation.
The dotted line indicates the indexed 2030 earnings
in the Current Pathway and corresponding oil price,
which are compared to the indexed values in the
remaining scenarios. The profitability comparison
in the different scenarios is dependent on the
relative oil price variation.
Despite varying scenarios, we employ an
agile process that proactively adjusts
and shapes our strategy, enhancing
our resilience by capitalising on new,
sustainable growth opportunities.
Chemicals growth
Global growth in the chemicals value chain is beneficial.
Our products enhance lightweighting, energy efficiency
packaging, personal care and hygiene. We monitor carbon
border tax impacts on our South African chemicals portfolio.
Climate change impacts
We monitor potential climate change impacts, including
production loss, supply chain interruptions and infrastructure
damage. Climate resilience and adaptation to weather impacts
is a key design philosophy. We continue to invest in reducing
emissions and building resilience.
Regulatory and policy changes impacting
products and market demand.
Partnering and relationship trends and
requirements.
Carbon border taxes in different regions.
Carbon tax design, especially in the
South African context.
Financing and funding trends and requirements.
Sustainability obligations and associated costs
of investments required.
100
EBITDA (mil ZAR) nominal
Oil price ZAR/bbl (nominal)
The pace of technology development,
commercialisation, implementation, access to
new technologies, the presence of an enabling
environment and the cost of electrolysis,
renewable power generation and new
chemicals feedstocks.
Macroeconomic drivers such as oil, rand/dollar
exchange rate, inflation, economic growth,
product prices and feedstock prices.
CURRENT
PATHWAY
FRAGMENTED
WORLD
COOPERATIVE
WORLD
SASOL INTEGRATED REPORT 2024
26
NET
ZERO
SIGNPOSTS
Improved feedstock resilience
Moving from the Current Pathway to the Net Zero World,
carbon intensive feedstock use declines. We continue
to explore opportunities to lower our exposure while
balancing production and decarbonisation, incorporating
low carbon feedstocks like biomass.
SIGNPOSTS INCLUDE:
