ID-5184 Wonca Abstracts supplement A-K 13-10-23 - Flipbook - Page 140
WONCA 2023 Supplement 1: WONCA 2023 abstracts (A–K)
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Barthel Index score at admission to predict one-month
and one-year prognosis for inpatients aged ≥75 years with
multimorbidity
Dr Xin Chen, Hua Jiang
Department of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University, School of Medicine
Background
The risk of poor outcomes (readmission and mortality) after discharge is high in elderly inpatients with
multimorbidity. Early assessment of the prognosis in these patients is important. The aim of this study
was to investigate the Barthel Index (BI) score in predicting the one-month and one-year prognosis
after discharge, and to determine optimal cut-off values for prediction.
Methods
We retrospectively enrolled consecutive inpatients aged ≥75 years from our hospital during February
2020 and January 2021. Information of the basic demographic variables, BI score, disease burden,
length of hospital stay, medical cost and outcomes of patients were collected. Then, we analysed the
association between BI score and clinical outcomes.
Results
In all, 242 subjects were included in this study. The median BI score was 40 (5, 70). There were
48.76% and 82.23% patients with poor prognosis within one month and one year after discharge. BI
remained an independent predictor of poor outcome within one month (OR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.96;
P < 0.001) and one year (OR 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97, 0.99; P = 0.001) after adjusting other factors. The BI
score was negatively correlated with poor outcomes. ROC curve analysis showed the AUC of the BI in
predicting one-month and one-year outcomes was 0.860 (95% CI: 0.810, 0.910; P < 0.001) and 0.674
(95% CI: 0.592, 0.756; P < 0.001), respectively. The cut-off values for BI to predict one-month and oneyear outcomes were 42.5 and 52.5.
Conclusions
The BI score at admission was a useful predictor of outcomes within one month and one year after
discharge for very elderly multimorbid inpatients.
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