ETA 2021 Strategic Plan - Flipbook - Page 13
types will require new data fusion techniques
to make them useful for calculating metrics
spanning different stressors, time, and spatial
resolutions.
Modeling, Prediction and Simulation
Region-specific forecasts of climate-driven
stressors are produced by modelers in the Earth
and Environmental Sciences Area. Forecasted
knowledge of these stressors must be translated
into insights that reveal which stressors are most
consequential in which locations, and what their
likely impacts will be. How do we couple regionspecific atmospheric and subsurface stressor
models to infrastructure models? Where is cosimulation needed, and where will input/output
interfaces be sufficient?
Assessing the impacts of these stressors must
account for the relationships between systems
of interest; for example, to understand when
high winds are likely to lead to power failures.
Relevant questions include: How do we model
interactive dynamics between infrastructure
systems before, during, and after a stressor?
Which interfaces between grid, transportation,
and building systems are affected, and through
which failure modes? Where do beneficial and
hazardous combinations occur, and what do
they comprise?
Infrastructure that is critical to this initiative
spans buildings, utility distribution systems
(gas, water, electricity), and roadways. Critical
environmental systems include soils and
groundwater, as well as atmospheric systems.
For example, models that characterize the
frequency and severity of extreme heat events
can be linked with building energy and occupant
comfort models to reveal the event’s impact.
Coupling urban microclimate models and
urban energy models will enable analysis of
phenomena such as potential thermal runaway,
in which heat rejected from air-conditioning
systems increases the heat of the urban
environment, in turn increasing cooling loads
and resulting in cooling system failure and
dangerous heat hazards. Similarly, wildfire can
affect air quality and electric power delivery,
creating implications for how to safely operate
the grid and buildings for continuity in services
and healthy indoor environmental conditions.
These interactions and associated decision risks
can be researched by coupling wildfire and
grid topology models with computational fluid
dynamic, building energy, and occupant comfort
and behavior models.
Finally, models for predicting single events, such
as the location and propagation of fires, storms,
flooding, and landslides — as well as models
predicting long-term changes resulting from land
use change, climate change, and groundwater
use — must be integrated with infrastructure
and techno-economic models to guide decisionmaking based on cost, material and energyefficiency, and deployment potential.
Key questions that crosscut the modeling,
prediction, and simulation focus area include:
How are stochastic behaviors integrated into
our predictions, and for which technologies
and decisions is this most critical? How
are monitoring data and resilience metrics
integrated into our models? How can new and
coupled models be validated?
Technologies and Processes at Scale
Just as materials innovations have transformed
consumer products, there is opportunity for
new materials to fortify our infrastructure. What
new properties are needed? For which acute
and chronic stressors will intelligent or adaptive
materials provide highest value, and how can
these new materials be scaled for cost-effective
integration into mass construction processes?
Consider, for example, that new materials that
can be controlled to modulate the thermal
properties of the building envelope to act as a
buffer to (or conduit for) heat flow, impacting
heating and cooling requirements. These
properties have the potential to enhance a
building’s resilience to extreme temperature
events and during power failures. Similarly, new
moisture resistant and hydrophobic materials
show promise for mitigating the impacts of
flooding and increased precipitation or moisture
— conditions that can result in dampness, mold,
and bacterial growth, leading to negative health
impacts and structural damage.
At the systems level, the development of resilient
infrastructure systems will entail design and
operations and control strategies, static and
adaptive technology, and both community-scale
and asset-level resilience. A host of modeling and
simulation tools for the natural environment,
building design and controls, behavior, and
the electricity grid must be integrated to
address three key questions: How is asset- or
service-level resilience afforded, through what
combination of distributed energy resources,
22
|
E TA S t r a t e g i c P l a n 2 0 2 1 - 2 0 3 0
fixed design elements, and dynamic control
strategies? How is this resilience distributed for
maximum benefit at the community level? How
do community-scale solutions vary with expected
combinations of stressors and climate zones?
For example, in a low- or no-power case, most
buildings cannot be powered purely from solar
photovoltaics, and existing battery storage
is expensive and offers limited capacity or
duration. Diesel backup power has adverse
impacts in terms of GHG and air pollutant
emissions, and natural gas-based cogeneration
may be cost prohibitive or at odds with
decarbonization goals. There is therefore an
opportunity for new solutions that include
distributed energy resources, as well as demandside load management.
Resilient operation of building systems at
the community scale will also depend on
electrical systems that are robust, scalable, and
affordable. These systems will use advanced
power electronics and integrated system control
algorithms to enable operations to modulate
across a spectrum of low-power to no-power
islanded modes. Power and end-use systems
will also need to be controlled to better integrate
distributed energy resources, through strategies
such as virtual power plants, transactive
energy, and nested microgrids. These strategies
will enable the most important building and
infrastructure services to be maintained in the
face of multiple external stressors.
Maintaining the operational continuity of public
communication systems and the quality of
information is essential to effectively manage
community-scale response to events. To do
so it will be necessary to answer some critical
questions: What guidance is provided before,
during and after an event? For example,
when and for whom are changes in location
warranted, and what routes are recommended?
How is guidance delivered in a manner that is
likely to reach the most vulnerable community
members, particularly when infrastructure may
be compromised?
E TA S t r a t e g i c P l a n 2 0 2 1 - 2 0 3 0
|
23
