James September-October 2024 web - Flipbook - Page 54
Raphael Warnock, even though he was up against one
of Georgia’s most popular sports figures.
Consider, too, that if there is one thing we’ve learned
in polling it is that the higher a person’s level of education attained, at least for the times we are now in, the
more likely they are to vote Democrat. And the overall
percent of white voters who have had some college, or
earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, is growing.
Add to this the fact that despite all of the declarations that African- Americans are more frequently
drifting over to the GOP side of the aisle, the exit data
replies, “not true.”
Republicans Could Retain Control, For Now
Considering all this, Republicans now cling to power
with the exact same formula Democrats relied upon prior
to Sonny Perdue’s upset of former Democrat Gov. Roy
Barnes in 2002. That recipe basically consists of an army
of rural voters and ex-urban supporters around metro
Atlanta. But Atlanta’s growth keeps accelerating and the
blue donut will keep spreading and becoming bluer.
Whether the next gubernatorial election cycle will
see a Democrat elected governor remains to be seen.
Polling suggests a moderate white Democrat with
some progressive leanings might have a shot to defeat a
Republican. That shoe would perfectly fit someone like
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a Jason Carter, whose earlier effort was simply too early
in the demographic shift to defeat popular GOP incumbent Nathan Deal.
But there is a catch.
The electorate that makes up a Democratic primary
in Georgia leans heavily African-American. Democrat
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff managed to overcome his party’s
increasing penchant for nominating an African-American in major statewide races. But he’s a rarity. So could
an African-American governor be in the offing? Perhaps
a leading candidate could be outgoing DeKalb County
CEO Michael Thurmond. He has one of the best personalities in Georgia politics and Thurmond’s style and
moderate-to-liberal policies could make him a real threat
to Republicans in a gubernatorial general election.
Bottom line: Capturing the governor’s office is how,
ultimately, the state will return to Democrat control.
Whoever is Governor Has Extensive Power
The office of Georgia’s governor is among the most
powerful of all governors in the nation. Other than lacking the direct power to pardon, just about everything—
through executive appointments and veto power— is
under the control of the governor. Once another party
gains control of the executive branch, party switching
by a variety of legislators soon follows. Currently the
GOP holds over 100 seats in the Georgia House. It takes
90 plus one for Republicans to retain control.
By the configuration of the current districts, Republicans should be able to maintain control for several more
election cycles. House Speaker Jon Burns has proved
to be a stabilizing and positive force, and his position
of leadership will likely preserve his party’s position,
absent a Democratic win in the next race for governor.
Republicans control the state Senate by a five-seat
margin. That is not likely to go south on them for now.
The good news is their leader, Lt. Governor Burt Jones,
is immensely more popular within the GOP caucus than
his predecessor. And GOP team unity is essential to
fundraising and winning as a party.
The odds are great, though, that Jones will be a candidate for governor in 2026. That poses the question of
who will hold his GOP Senate team together after that.
Should Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger or someone not
currently mentioned like First Lady Marty Kemp (don’t
count that out) win the GOP primary nomination and go
on to defeat the Democrat nominee, the legislature— or
at least one branch— would likely stay Republican.
However, should demographics and the right Democratic gubernatorial nominee creep up unexpectedly,
don’t be shocked if everything starts to turn. If not in
2026, a turn sometime after that seems inevitable.
In any event, Republicans, please don’t shoot the
messenger!
