James July-August 2024 web - Flipbook - Page 45
n the last two presidential political cycles,
RealClearPolitics ranked InsiderAdvantage
near or at the top of pollsters who poll the
battleground states. So why no poll from us
so far in this cycle? The answer is simple. We
are not sure quite yet who to poll or how to weight the results. I emphasize the “not sure” nature of these comments.
Continuingly overlooked by some pollsters and pundits are two issues that could render polls in the inevitably
tight presidential contests in battleground swing states off
by reasonable margins.
Remember, the results of the 2020 contest were oh so
close. For instance, Joe Biden won Georgia by a little over
11,000 votes out of over five million cast. The other battleground states had similar razor thin margins. Yet despite
record turnout in 2020, Biden chose to issue an Executive
Order in 2021 requiring every federal department and
agency create a comprehensive plan to “promote access
to voting.” The order notes issues of race and ethnicity as
barriers to voter registration. The order also includes a
request for plans from these departments and agencies to
educate voters and to protect them from misinformation.
What could possibly go wrong here? Few of these
myriad entities have bothered to share with the public,
much less Congress, their plans. Congressional Republicans continue to push for full disclosure, but time is
running out and there will likely be little that can be done
by a divided Congress.
Based on the language of Biden’s order, it is likely that
the goal is to boost voting among demographic groups
that traditionally support Democratic candidates. How
many new voters the government will magically produce
is anybody’s guess.
And then there is the issue of “non-citizen” voting.
Predictably, left-of-center policy “think tanks” believe
that almost no voting occurs from “migrant/non-citizens,”
because under the laws of most states it is illegal. But
with the unprecedented flow of illegal migrants through
the southern border since 2021 there could be complications. And conservatives and the left argue over the
extent to which automatic registration through various
state government assistance and licensing departments
and agencies can lead to non-citizens being registered.
A joint study by researchers at Old Dominion and
George Mason Universities in 2014 concluded that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in the 2008 presidential contest
and 2.2 percent voted in the 2010 midterms. To be fair the
left-leaning Brennan Center did a study finding almost
no non-citizen voting takes place. And the Cato Institute
deemed the Old Dominion/George Mason study flawed
with a difficult to prove attack on its methodology.
Put me down as unsure, but at least concerned, about
a good chunk of votes we pollsters might not survey.
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