Elections Outlook Report - Flipbook - Page 4
Lame Duck Session
What to expect?
The 118th Congress returns on November 12 to complete its
post-election legislative session, known as the “lame duck”
session. Lawmakers usually look to wrap up any remaining
agenda items before the new congressional session starts on
January 3. Minus the week they will be out for Thanksgiving,
legislators will have only about five weeks to pass “must pass”
items, such as FY25 Appropriations and reauthorization of the
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Since Republicans have secured the majority control in both
the House and Senate in the upcoming 119th Congress, they will
gain greater leverage to shape the negotiations and influence
the political strategy surrounding these key bills.
Additionally, a list of “will-do” items likely includes nominations,
disaster aid, and other programs set to expire by year-end. It is
anticipated that Congress will extend many of these programs,
such as healthcare extenders and the Farm Bill, through the
FY25 appropriations bills or a Continuing Resolution. While
other bipartisan priorities may be considered, the scope of
additional items remains limited due to the already packed
schedule and leadership elections.
FY2025 Appropriations | Must Pass
Expires December 20
Before the elections, President Biden signed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund
the government through December 20, 2024. As of now, the House has passed
only four of the twelve appropriations bills, and the Senate has yet to pass any,
leaving substantial work to still be done. Negotiations are further complicated by
disagreements between the House and Senate on topline spending allocations.
With only five weeks remaining to address these critical issues and reach a
consensus on spending priorities, passing a full appropriations package before
year-end is increasingly unlikely.
The recent election results have also shifted the political dynamics surrounding
government funding. House Republican leaders are awaiting guidance from
President-elect Trump on the path forward. Trump may choose to pursue a full-year
funding package to allow Republicans to focus on his first 100 days agenda without
ongoing funding distractions. This approach is preferred by several Democrat and
Republican appropriators and a bipartisan group of defense hawks and Pentagon
officials, who argue that the Department of Defense cannot adequately operate
under a CR given rising global threats from China, Iran, and Russia.
However, with Republicans set to control the White House and both chambers in
the next Congress, the more probable course is an extension of the CR into 2025.
This would allow Republicans to shape the FY25 budget and avoid locking in any
Democrats budget priorities. Another possible approach could involve passing a
series of “minibuses” for select appropriations alongside a CR for other spending.
Speaker Mike Johnson is reportedly considering a CR extension into March 2025,
potentially paired with a disaster relief package. The CR would like include funding
extensions for programs set to expire at year-end. Bipartisan support will still be
required to pass any CR, given the current Democratic control of the Senate and
White House.
For public and private stakeholders reliant on federal appropriations, a CR presents
challenges. Funding would remain at FY24 levels, preventing any increases for
critical programs and specific allocations that stakeholders have advocated for.
Additionally, directives and legislative initiatives included in appropriations reports
and congressionally directed funding for community project would be excluded
from the CR, limiting the scope and impact of funding for various programs.
