Elections Outlook Report - Flipbook - Page 20
Senate
Republicans have wrestled back control of the Senate with a 53-47 margin, setting the stage for a more assertive
legislative agenda as we wait for the final results in the swing state of PA. The GOP’s current 4-seat advantage
positions Republicans to wield considerable power in shaping the judiciary and navigating high-stakes policy battles.
The 2024 election map was particularly favorable to Republicans, who only
had to defend 11 Senate seats, largely in secure states. Meanwhile, Democrats
were on defense, fighting to hold onto multiple toss-up seats in swing states
where polling had shown razor-thin margins. The GOP’s strategy of chipping
away at Democratic strongholds paid off, shifting several “lean Democrat” races
into the toss-up column as Election Day approached. Democrats braced for
losses, knowing that Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement had essentially gifted
Republicans his West Virginia seat—and the one-vote edge they needed to flip
the Senate. The new emerging question became how large the GOP majority
might be, and whether Democrats could counter with surprising pick-ups in
red states like Texas and Florida, where there had been some unexpected
momentum.
So far, Republicans have flipped Ohio and Montana, ousting veteran Democratic
incumbents Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Democratic
women senators fought hard to defend their seats, narrowly holding onto
Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the spotlight remains on the
nail-biter Arizona race that remains uncalled, with incumbent Democratic
Senator Ruben Gallego currently in a slight lead. Pennsylvania Democratic
Senator Bob Casey has not conceded his race, which has been called by the
Associated Press, but other news outlets have yet to follow suit. The state
continues to count an estimated 100,000 outstanding ballots while his opponent
holds a roughly 40,000-vote lead.
Democrat
Republican
Uncalled/Vacant
118th
As of Nov. 21, 2022
47
Democrats
50-49-1 majority with three independents
(King, Manchin, and Sanders) caucusing
with Democrats and Sinema not
caucusing with either party.
51 for majority
119th
Republicans
53
As of Nov. 12, 2024
