Elections Outlook Report - Flipbook - Page 16
Biden’s Delay in Stepping Aside Prevented Harris Time to Separate
Herself From an Unpopular Administration
Trump’s Stronger, More Disciplined Campaign
Many Democratic insiders argue that Biden’s delay in stepping aside cost
Harris precious time to build her own campaign narrative and infrastructure.
Delayed action by Biden in stepping aside prevented Harris from forming a
clear agenda distinct from Biden’s policies, leading to dissatisfaction among
voters seeking more decisive action on economic issues. Her reluctance
to diverge sharply from Biden’s platform made it challenging to appeal to
voters eager for change, ultimately constraining her ability to establish
herself as an independent leader with fresh solutions.
Trump’s 2024 campaign, with its structured approach that minimized internal
drama and maximized strategic cohesion, was markedly more organized
and focused than his previous runs. His team implemented a professional
campaign operation that allowed Trump to maintain his outsider image while
staying on message. This organized approach, combined with a direct focus
on voter concerns, allowed the Trump campaign to present a more credible
and effective image than in 2016 or 2020, capturing broader support.
Republicans’ Success in Mobilizing Key Issues
The GOP effectively framed immigration and inflation as failures of the
Democratic administration, emphasizing Trump’s ability to deliver “law and
order” on immigration and relief on inflation. Harris’s campaign struggled to
counter these narratives convincingly, with Republican messaging portraying
Trump as more capable of addressing economic and security concerns. This
strong positioning on core voter issues drew undecided and swing voters
toward Trump.
Wide age, racial and ethnic, educational difference in voters’ midterm preferences
Democratic Republican
candidate candidate
All RVs
Men
Women
96 96
42 55
53 45
White
41 57
Black
85
13
Hispanic
52 46
Asian
54 46
Ages 18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
54
49
44
49
43
48
54
49
Postgrad
59 38
Bachelors
Associates
53 45
41 56
Some college
HS or less
NBC as of Nov 9, 2024, 9:11 AM
47 51
35 63
