Elections Outlook Report - Flipbook - Page 15
The results of the 2024 election underscore America’s deep divisions, with nearly half of the country voting against the prevailing party.
While Republicans achieved a sweeping victory, capturing both popular and electoral votes, the underlying discontent that drove voters
toward change remains potent. If Republicans fail to deliver tangible improvements, the electorate’s restlessness suggests they could face
another shift in two years.
Trump’s Appeal to Working-Class Hispanic and Black Voters
Diminished Democratic Margins in Key Bellwether and Urban Centers
Trump expanded his reach among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups,
including Latino men and working-class voters across racial lines. His
campaign’s rhetoric on job creation, opposition to elite-driven policies, and
emphasis on national pride resonated with working-class Americans who
felt disconnected from the Democratic message. Winning 45% of Latinos
and 55% of Latino men—records for a Republican candidate—demonstrated
Trump’s success in building a multiracial, working-class coalition, challenging
Democrats’ historic advantage with these voters. Trump made gains among
Black voters in North Carolina’s rural counties, flipping some counties and
making headway in other majority-Black regions, signaling weakened
Democratic support. His traction in both minority-dense and suburban areas
in the Sun Belt and Midwest counties with substantial minority populations
contributed to a sweeping victory across seven swing states, solidifying his
popular vote win.
Major urban areas previously delivering decisive Democratic margins,
such as Detroit and Northern Virginia, saw reduced Democratic turnout
or support. This trend extended to college counties, where Trump closed
the gap, reducing Democratic advantages. Philadelphia, traditionally a
Democratic stronghold, yielded only a modest margin for Kamala Harris,
significantly below the target set by local Democratic leaders, which
contributed to the Democrats’ weakened standing in Pennsylvania.
Shift in Male Voter Demographics and Perceived Gender Divide
Dissatisfied male voters, particularly young men, shifted from the Democratic
Party toward Trump. While Democrats anticipated strong female support
to counterbalance this, they underestimated the impact of male voters
feeling overlooked. Many men, especially working-class and non-collegeeducated men, felt left behind and that societal advancements neglected
their needs–sentiments the GOP leveraged by positioning Trump as a leader
who acknowledged their struggles. Trump’s campaign strategically engaged
male-centric media, such as Joe Rogan’s podcast, providing him a platform
to address these issues directly. Democrats debated whether Harris should
also appear in similar forums but ultimately chose to generally not, fearing
it would alienate their base. This missed opportunity to counter Trump’s
narrative among key demographic groups likely broadened Trump’s base
and undercut Democratic dominance in this demographic.
Economic Concerns and Inflation
The post-pandemic economic climate, marked by inflation and concerns
over the cost of living, led voters to turn right, mirroring trends in other
Western democracies. The economic difficulties faced by many Americans
in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly rising inflation and the
cost of essential goods, created a sense of frustration with the Democratic
administration’s handling of these issues. Many voters felt that policies
from the Biden-Harris administration, including high federal spending, had
exacerbated, rather than alleviated, inflation, leading to increased living
costs and economic instability. Additionally, Democratic focus on social
and environmental issues sometimes overshadowed immediate economic
concerns, leaving many voters feeling that the party was out of touch with
the financial struggles impacting their daily lives. This perception drove a
significant portion of the electorate to seek stability and change, which the
Trump campaign capitalized on by promising targeted economic relief and a
focus on reducing inflation.
