Economic Development Recovery and Resiliency Playbook - Flipbook - Page 47
If a large employer within a locality is part of a publicly traded corporation, then the parent company is required to file quarterly
and annual reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).45 In addition to financial reports, SEC filings ofen
include other valuable information about facilities, operational characteristics, competitive threats, facility expansion/closure
plans, and market opportunities. A community can use this information to examine where the parent company of a large
employer sees itself going over the next few years and how the company might plan to address market threats and respond to
specific events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sources of Employment Forecasts
Long-term forecasts provide indicators for how much growth a community or region might expect to absorb over the short and
long terms. The assumptions and uses for these forecasts vary, and the resulting projections can difer significantly. However,
they provide some guidance for the magnitude of job growth and the type of growth that can potentially occur. The available
employment forecasts include the following.
• Local jurisdiction General Plans are locally derived long-term growth projections organized around land use
designations.
• California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Long-Term Socio-Economic Forecasts by County provide annually
updated projections out to 2050 that also include other broad socioeconomic measures.46
• Economic Vitality Strategies (EVS) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS) ofen include
growth forecasts or provide tracking data in a digital format.
• California EDD Employment Projections provide two-year and 10-year projections by metro area and economic region.47
• Council of Governments (COG) forecasts are long-term forecasts that include cities and unincorporated areas.
• EMSI and JobsEQ are subscription-based web applications with 10-year forecasts that include geographic detail at the
ZIP code level and industry detail at the six-digit NAICS code level.
• Woods & Poole is an annually updated publication, available for purchase, with historical socioeconomic data dating
back to 1970 and projections out to 2050. It includes data for the state, metro areas, and counties.
Equity and Inclusion
The characteristics of business ownership or the establishment size ofer a useful baseline for assessing inclusion and equity.
Business databases include information about the size (jobs and revenues) and ownership characteristics (corporate-owned,
woman-owned, etc.) of individual businesses. More broadly, the Annual Business Survey (ABS) conducted by the Census Bureau
collects and reports data on business ownership and allows for cross-tabulation by industry sector, employment size, revenue
range, gender, race/ethnicity, veteran status, and other measures.48 The data also diferentiates by state and metro area. When
combined with other data, the ABS data can potentially show how economic events might disproportionately afect industry
sectors with greater concentrations of small businesses or diverse racial/ethnic ownership patterns.49
In addition, the large microdata sets from the Census Bureau such as the Current Population Survey are released on a monthly
basis and can provide more detailed and timely insights into how disasters disproportionately afect diferent demographic
groups.50 For example, a May 2020 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) study used the CPS dataset of the
number of hours worked by business owners to show that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in much greater closure rates for
Black- and immigrant-owned businesses.51 Keep in mind, however, that it can be challenging to work with these large datasets.
45
https://sec.report/Form/10-K
https://dot.ca.gov/programs/transportation-planning/economics-data-management/transportation-economics/long-term-socio-economic-forecasts
by-county
47
https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/data/employment-projections.html
48
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs.html
49
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/tables.html
50
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/cps/cps-basic.html
51
Fairlie, Robert and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR); The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Early-Stage Losses
From The April 2020 Current Population Survey; May 2020. https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/20-022.pdf
46
Understanding Your Economic Base Through Cluster Analysis, Business Size, and Supply Chain
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