M&A Year in Review 2023 brochure - Flipbook - Page 82
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Geopolitics
Macro issues, both anticipated and unforeseen, will play a major role in the M&A markets during 2024,
with significant events in much of the world introducing risks that may impact local and global transactions.
With major elections in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, and the United Kingdom occurring this year,
dealmakers will need to consider a variety of political outcomes that could have meaningfully different
implications for M&A.
Americas
United Kingdom
In the United States, the upcoming presidential
election may prove to be at historically
contentious levels, but may not, on its own,
impact dealmaking as predictably as in prior
cycles. While antitrust enforcers in a second
Biden term will likely maintain their current
policies, their views are broadly understood and
have been digested by dealmakers. In a second
Trump administration, it seems reasonable to
assume that antitrust regulators would generally
favor dealmaking as contributing toward a
positive economic impact on the United States,
subject to constraints upon foreign investment in
the United States associated with an “America
First” mentality.
In the United Kingdom, polls and pundits suggest
an election victory for Labour. However, boards
and investors are not jumping to early conclusions,
particularly given recent history and similar
electoral circumstances with the Brexit referendum
and, even further back, an unlikely Conservative
election win in 1992. Political uncertainty will
remain throughout 2024, but businesses and
investors will demand stability and consistency
and will likely support whichever administration is
considered more capable to provide that.
In Latin America, recent elections have brought
a sense of stability in some countries, like Brazil,
and great uncertainty in others, like Argentina.
However, following a period of significant
economic reform in Argentina, this uncertainty
is buoyed by a hope of economic stability.
Dealmakers will need to
consider a variety of political
outcomes that could have
meaningfully different
implications for M&A.”
